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Commercial aircraft manufacturing market


The global commercial aircraft manufacturing market is expected to growth 3,7% CAGR since 2016, reaching €208 billion in 2019

Global Aeronautics industry: market value growth

2016-19 CAGR

Global commercial aircraft manufacturing and MRO market value (billion euros, 2016-19)

Global commercial aircraft MRO market by MRO type (billion euros, 2016-19)

More than 42 thousand deliveries will be needed to meet aircraft demand for the next 20 years, both for growth and replacement

Global Aeronautics industry: expected demand evolution by geography


Almost 40% of planned commercial aircraft production by 2037 is to be delivered to the Asia-Pacific region, as much as Europe and North America together


Of the 42.730 aircraft to be produced by 2037, 43% will be replacements


Planned commercial aircraft deliveries per market (number of aircraft and %, 2018-37)

Global commercial aircraft capacity forecast (number of aircraft, 2017-37)

The current global backlog for commercial aircraft is almost half of the total active fleet, and grew 7% per year in 2012-17

Aeronautics sector: overview of OEM production backlog and retirement rate


Commercial aircraft OEM production backlog is forecasted to remain at historical highs


Aircraft retirement is decreasing by 20,8% per year since 2012, mainly due to lower fuel costs and significant order backlog


  • Backlog more than doubled in 2010-14, due to emerging markets growth, higher fuel prices and the introduction of new technology
  • In 2017, total backlog decreased for the first time since 2009, driven by increasing delivery capacity and slowdown in orders
  • The global offer-demand context is driving aircraft in-service time
  • Positive impact on MRO industry outlook (with increased spending on older engines and airframes) and aftermarket/ surplus parts suppliers
  • Negative impact for airline operators, with increasing materials costs

The global MRO market is expected to grow by 4% until 2037, accompanying low retirement rates and higher in-service times

Aeronautics sector: overview of commercial aviation services forecasted market


By 2037, the gap between MRO growth rates in APAC and North America/ Europe will more than double


The commercial aviation services market is expected to reach €8,8 trillion by 2037


  • Increasing fleet size is set to drive global MRO market growth
  • In Asia, growth will be led by expanding domestic markets and new aircraft
  • In Europe and North America, MRO growth will mainly be driven by increased aircraft in-service time
  • By 2037, aircraft MRO will account for 26,8% of total aviation services market, or €2,4 trillion
  • Predictive maintenance and passenger connectivity are expected to shape the MRO market in the next 20 years

Note: (1) Includes Ground, Station and Cargo Operations, Marketing, Planning and Customer Service, and Corporate and External services
Sources: Boeing, EY analysis

Supply chain reorganization and digital transformation are major Aeronautics-specific trends

Aeronautics sector: snapshot of main industry trends


Global partnerships

Global players are partnering with emerging markets players for integration with the global supply chain (e.g., intellectual property, data services)

Pursuing localization in international markets

Local partnerships, developing local supplier-networks and opening new facilities to pursuit presence in international markets

Improving the supply chain

Companies are pursuing vertical integration to reduce operating costs by eliminating supplier margin and improving agility to address market requests

Market consolidation and M&A

APAC is expected to have high growth, driven by increasing investments of China and India in developing commercial and military drones

Focus on after-market services

Companies are restricting intellectual property and licenses for component manufacturers and acquiring or forming partnerships with MROs

Adoption of digital technologies

Aeronautics players are applying digital solutions to improve service life-cycles (e.g., using data to improve performance and aircraft health monitoring)

Focus on improving productivity and cost efficiencies

Companies are adopting strategies of smart contracts and additive manufacturing to improve production efficiency and lead times

Selected ASD Markets

France, Germany and the UK are the key European markets, with Canada assuming a particular role as a non-European market

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